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Date : 2006-11-09
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Completing the Forecast Characterizing and Communicating ~ Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather seasonal climate and hydrological prediction and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast
Completing the Forecast Characterizing and Communicating ~ Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather seasonal climate and hydrological prediction and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast
1 Introduction Completing the Forecast Characterizing ~ A probabilistic forecast conveys uncertainty in the prediction The converse is a deterministic forecast which provides only one prediction of the future state of a system with no information regarding forecast uncertainty
Completing the Forecast Characterizing and Communicating ~ To make effective use of uncertainty products users need complete forecast verification information that measures all relevant aspects of forecast performance Understanding user needs and effectively communicating the value of uncertainty information for addressing those needs are perhaps the largest and most important tasks for the Enterprise
Completing the Forecast Characterizing and Communicating ~ Completing the Forecast Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts eBook Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts National Research Council Kindle Store
Front Matter Completing the Forecast Characterizing and ~ Completing the Forecast Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts and John Sokich for their prompt and complete responses Raymond J
Completing the forecast characterizing and communicating ~ Completing the forecast characterizing and communicating uncertainty for better decisions using weather and climate forecasts Summary The National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions
4 Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Completing the ~ Forecast uncertainty can be communicated in such products as maps Figure 41 graphs tables charts flip books images and written or oral narrative see Annex 4 for a range of examples Selecting an appropriate product type and carefully crafting its content can substantially reduce the likelihood of misunderstandings
3 Estimating and Validating Uncertainty Completing the ~ Forecast verification is the means by which the quality of forecasts is assessed Verification provides information to users regarding the quality of the forecasts to aid in their understanding and application of the forecasts in decision making In addition verification provides baselevel uncertainty information
Communicating forecast uncertainty LessWrong 20 ~ As smartphones grow in popularity weather apps are an increasingly common way for people to keep tabs on the weather The study on communicating weather uncertainty discussed below found that in the United States people in its sample audience saw weather forecasts an average of 115 times a month
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